This website uses cookies
Read our Privacy policy and Terms of use for more information.
Forecast scoreboard
Each call says what will happen, by when, and how we will grade it. Misses stay up. Calls are never reworded after they publish.
Last updated: October 29, 2026 · Next update November 5 · Update log
Record
4–2
H
M
H
H
H
M
Hits and misses, oldest to newest
Open calls
26
Next one resolves October 29
Next up
Oct 29 · #11 commerciality standard
Nov 10 · #09 CMMC report, #28 China rare earth pause
Nov 13 · #12 Feinberg deliverables, #13 Agincourt plan
Calibration score
Starts at 20 graded calls
■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■■
6 of 20 · Brier score
KEY OPEN not yet resolved GRADING past its date, checking the record HIT landed on the side we called MISS landed on the other side VOID event could not happen, not counted
Newest first · every grade links its source
25
Policy
No proposed FAR rule implementing Executive Order 14402 will be published in the Federal Register by December 31, 2026
Made August 28, 2026 in the August Pro report, as call 26-07.
The FAR Council published a proposed rule on September 18 (FAR Case 2026-006) that cites Executive Order 14402 and adds justification and approval requirements for contracts other than fixed-price in Part 16. That is the fixed-price preference the call said would not reach the Federal Register this year. Graded October 17. Our October report listed this call as open, which was an error. SOURCE
Our call
Moderate confidence
65–80%, graded at 72.5%
Resolved
September 18, 2026
MISS
23
Funding
The enacted FY2027 continuing resolution will contain no anomaly authorizing a new procurement start or a production rate increase for a major defense program
Made August 28, 2026 in the August Pro report, as call 26-06.
The continuing resolution signed September 2 as P.L. 119-103 bars new production starts and production rate increases. Its carve-out for cost increases on 20 prior-year shipbuilding programs does not count under the call. Graded October 17. SOURCE
Our call
Moderate confidence
60–75%, graded at 67.5%
Resolved
September 2, 2026
HIT
05
Funding
No lapse in appropriations on October 1
Made August 27, 2026 in Denied List
The President signed H.R. 6500, a stopgap funding the government through December 11, on September 2, so no lapse could occur. Graded on September 15. The same event settled call 26-05 in the August Pro report, which said FY2027 would open under a continuing resolution. It counts once, here. SOURCE
Our call
High confidence
No number published
Resolved
September 2, 2026
HIT
04
Policy
The Administrator for Federal Procurement Policy will not deliver the Section 3(b) FAR amendment proposal to the FAR Council by August 28
Made August 13, 2026 in Austal asked the Navy for relief
No proposed rule or FAR Council confirmation appeared by August 28. The Part 16 proposed rule was published in the Federal Register on September 18. SOURCE
Our call
No confidence published
No number published
Resolved
August 28, 2026
HIT
01
Programs
By August 15, the department names a DRPM-UxS director, and the pick comes from outside the traditional service acquisition corps
Made July 7, 2026 in Twelve Years
August 15 passed with no director named. Owen West took leave from DIU to lead DRPM-UxS in early October. SOURCE
Our call
Medium confidence
No number published
Resolved
August 15, 2026
MISS
03
Policy
By July 31, at least 20 of the 24 CFO Act agencies have posted updated Part 16 deviations to the acquisition.gov deviation guide
Made July 14, 2026 in Fixed Terms
Counted 21 of 24 on August 11. Disclosed with the grade: the count came 11 days after the deadline, and three agencies counted through combined filings. A strict count gives 18, which would be a miss. SOURCE
Our call
Medium-High confidence
No number published
Resolved
July 31, 2026
HIT
All 6 graded calls, newest first.
Sorted by resolution date
11
Policy
The 15-business-day commerciality standard will be public by October 29
First published on this scoreboard, October 17, 2026
How it resolves
Yes if a signed memo, class deviation, or DPCAP policy posting establishing a 15-business-day standard for commerciality determinations is publicly available on a DoD website or the Federal Register by 11:59pm ET, October 29, 2026. Internal-only issuance does not count.
Probability
30%
Band 25–35%
Opened at 30% · No change yet
Confidence
Moderate
Resolves
October 29, 2026
OPEN
09
Policy
The CMMC Task Force report will not be made public before November 10
Made October 13, 2026 in Phantom Deadline
How it resolves
No separate criteria were published. Graded on the call as written.
Probability
n/a
No number published
No change yet
Confidence
Moderate-High
Resolves
November 10, 2026
OPEN
28
Supply Chain
MOFCOM will publish a numbered announcement extending the suspension of Announcements Nos. 55, 56, 57, 58, 61 and 62 past November 10, 2026, on or before November 10, 2026
Made October 21, 2026 in The Defense Chokepoint Map
How it resolves
Yes if China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) publishes a numbered announcement, alone or jointly with the General Administration of Customs, on or before November 10, 2026 that extends the suspension of Announcements Nos. 55, 56, 57, 58, 61 and 62 set by Announcement No. 70 of 2025 past November 10, 2026. Spokesperson remarks, U.S. statements and press reports without a numbered announcement do not count. Source of record is the MOFCOM announcements list at mofcom.gov.cn.
Probability
70%
Band 65–75%
Opened at 70% · No change yet
Confidence
Moderate
Resolves
November 10, 2026
OPEN
12
Policy
At least one of the October 14 Feinberg deliverables will be public by November 13
First published on this scoreboard, October 17, 2026
How it resolves
Yes if any of the 30-day deliverables (consortium eligibility policy, direct-award preference, fee transparency, shadow-CAS prohibition, or the joint enforcement statement on fixed-price efficiency savings) is publicly available on a DoD website or the Federal Register by 11:59pm ET, November 13, 2026.
Probability
60%
Band 55–65%
Opened at 60% · No change yet
Confidence
Moderate
Resolves
November 13, 2026
OPEN
13
Emerging Tech
The Project Agincourt plan of action will be publicly released by November 13
First published on this scoreboard, October 17, 2026. See also #19.
How it resolves
Yes if the plan of action, or an official public summary of it, is posted by the Department of War or released to the public by November 13, 2026. Press reporting on contents without an official document or summary does not count.
Probability
30%
Band 25–35%
Opened at 30% · No change yet
Confidence
Moderate
Resolves
November 13, 2026
OPEN
02
Policy
The FY27 NDAA conference slips past Thanksgiving
Made July 7, 2026 in Twelve Years
How it resolves
No separate criteria were published. Graded on the call as written.
Clarified October 17, 2026. Conference counts as complete when a conference report or a negotiated compromise text is filed in either chamber.
Probability
n/a
No number published
No change yet
Confidence
Medium
Resolves
November 26, 2026
OPEN
32
Supply Chain
On or before November 27, 2026, China's Ministry of Commerce will publish an announcement that keeps the ban on exporting gallium, germanium, antimony and superhard dual-use items to the United States (Article 2 of MOFCOM Announcement No. 46 of 2024) suspended past November 27, 2026, or repeals it
First published on this scoreboard, October 21, 2026
How it resolves
Yes if a numbered MOFCOM announcement, or a joint MOFCOM and GAC announcement, appears on MOFCOM's official announcements list by 11:59pm Beijing time on November 27, 2026 and either extends the suspension set by Announcement No. 72 of 2025 beyond November 27, 2026 or repeals Article 2 of Announcement No. 46. Spokesperson remarks, U.S. statements and press reports without a numbered announcement do not count. Changes to Article 1, the ban on exports to U.S. military end users, are outside this call. Source of record is the MOFCOM announcements list at mofcom.gov.cn.
Probability
65%
Band 60–70%
Opened at 65% · No change yet
Confidence
Moderate
Resolves
November 27, 2026
OPEN
19
Emerging Tech
The full text of the Project Agincourt plan of action will not be published by November 30
Made October 15, 2026 in the October Pro report, as call 26-09. A stricter test than #13, which also counts an official summary.
How it resolves
Yes if no full plan document is publicly posted by the Department of War by November 30, 2026. A press release, fact sheet or briefing summary does not count as publication, and neither does a leak to trade press.
Probability
80–95%
Graded at 87.5%
Opened at 80–95% · No change yet
Confidence
Moderate-High
Resolves
November 30, 2026
OPEN
14
Funding
Congress will pass another continuing resolution instead of full-year defense appropriations by December 11
First published on this scoreboard, October 17, 2026
How it resolves
Yes if, by December 12, 2026, a law is enacted that extends continuing appropriations for the Department past December 11 without providing full-year FY2027 defense appropriations. No if full-year defense appropriations are enacted by then. If funding lapses with neither enacted, resolves No.
Probability
70%
Band 65–75%
Opened at 70% · No change yet
Confidence
Moderate
Resolves
December 12, 2026
OPEN
07
Programs
At least one GSA vehicle will publicly announce an on-ramp, an expansion of the scope, or an accelerated award schedule linked to the NITAAC transition before December 31
Made September 15, 2026 in 44 Days
How it resolves
Miss if a full quarter passes with no GSA action publicly linked to the NITAAC sunset.
Probability
n/a
No number published
No change yet
Confidence
Not published
Resolves
December 31, 2026
OPEN
08
Funding
Congress does not enact the $21 billion munitions line before December 31, 2026
Made September 29, 2026 in 39 Months
How it resolves
Miss if an enacted appropriation containing war munitions replenishment is signed on or before December 31. A full-year FY2027 appropriations act carrying that money counts.
Clarification added October 17, 2026: the call says "before December 31" and the criteria say "on or before." The published criteria govern, so a law signed on December 31 grades as a miss.
Probability
70–80%
Graded at 75%
Opened at 70–80% · No change yet
Confidence
Moderate-High
Resolves
December 31, 2026
OPEN
15
Programs
The Army will publicly name its Portfolio Acquisition Executive for Autonomy by December 31
First published on this scoreboard, October 17, 2026
How it resolves
Yes if an Army release, memo, or official statement names the individual serving as (or performing the duties of) Portfolio Acquisition Executive for Autonomy by December 31, 2026.
Probability
70%
Band 65–75%
Opened at 70% · No change yet
Confidence
Moderate
Resolves
December 31, 2026
OPEN
16
Policy
The FY2027 NDAA will be signed into law by December 31
First published on this scoreboard, October 17, 2026
How it resolves
Yes if the FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act is signed by the President on or before December 31, 2026.
Probability
70%
Band 65–75%
Opened at 70% · No change yet
Confidence
Moderate
Resolves
December 31, 2026
OPEN
26
Programs
No nomination for an Autonomous Warfare Command commander will reach the Senate by December 31
Made October 15, 2026 in the October Pro report, as call 26-10. The report printed this call twice with different numbers. We grade the first one it published, 55–80% at moderate confidence.
How it resolves
Yes unless a nomination record for a commander of that command appears on the Senate executive calendar by December 31, 2026. The nomination counts, not confirmation.
Probability
55–80%
Graded at 67.5%
Opened at 55–80% · No change yet
Confidence
Moderate
Resolves
December 31, 2026
OPEN
27
Policy
The FAR Council will publish at least one more Revolutionary FAR Overhaul proposed rule in the Federal Register by December 31, 2026
Made October 22, 2026 in The Call
How it resolves
Yes if a proposed or interim rule in the Revolutionary FAR Overhaul series that was not published before October 22, 2026 appears in the Federal Register with a publication date on or before December 31, 2026. Public inspection filings, corrections, comment period extensions and class deviations do not count. Source of record is federalregister.gov.
Probability
60%
Band 55–65%
Opened at 60% · No change yet
Confidence
Moderate
Resolves
December 31, 2026
OPEN
31
Supply Chain
The Department of Defense will not publicly postpone, suspend or issue a class-wide waiver of the January 1, 2027 expansion of the 10 U.S.C. 4872 covered-material restriction (DFARS 252.225-7052) for neodymium-iron-boron or samarium-cobalt magnets before January 1, 2027
First published on this scoreboard, October 21, 2026
How it resolves
Yes if none of the following is public by 11:59pm ET on December 31, 2026: (a) a DFARS rule or notice in the Federal Register that delays or suspends the January 1, 2027 language in 252.225-7052(b)(1)(ii) for either magnet type; (b) a DoD class deviation doing the same, posted on the DPCAP class deviations page or acquisition.gov; (c) a class-wide nonavailability determination under DFARS 225.7018-4 covering either magnet type across DoD, published by DoD; or (d) an enacted law moving the January 1, 2027 date in 10 U.S.C. 4872. Program-specific waivers, waivers granted under the EO 14415 mitigation plan process, and press reports of unpublished waivers do not count. Sources of record are federalregister.gov, acquisition.gov and congress.gov.
Probability
85%
Band 80–90%
Opened at 85% · No change yet
Confidence
Moderate
Resolves
January 1, 2027
OPEN
30
Supply Chain
DoD will publicly release the supply chain mapping policy and implementation guidance required by EO 14415 on or before January 16, 2027
Made October 21, 2026 in The Defense Chokepoint Map
How it resolves
Yes if, by 11:59pm ET on January 16, 2027, the critical supply chain mapping policy and implementation guidance required by Sec. 3(a) of Executive Order 14415 is publicly available on a DoD website (war.gov, acq.osd.mil, or the DPCAP policy or class deviation pages) or in the Federal Register, as a signed memo, policy document, class deviation or proposed rule that sets mapping requirements for prime contractors or subcontractors. Internal-only issuance, a press release that only describes the guidance, and a DFARS case opened without published text do not count.
Probability
35%
Band 30–40%
Opened at 35% · No change yet
Confidence
Low
Resolves
January 16, 2027
OPEN
10
Funding
No reconciliation bill with more than $10 billion for autonomy will pass before March 31, 2027
Made October 16, 2026 in October report announcement. See also #20.
How it resolves
Published as a 60 to 80 percent chance. No separate criteria were published. Graded on the call as written.
Clarified October 17, 2026. Pass means enacted, signed into law.
Probability
60–80%
Graded at 70%
Opened at 60–80% · No change yet
Confidence
Not published
Resolves
March 31, 2027
OPEN
17
Emerging Tech
The final FY2027 NDAA will authorize a standalone robotic and autonomous systems command
First published on this scoreboard, October 17, 2026
How it resolves
Yes if the enacted FY2027 NDAA contains a provision establishing or authorizing a unified or combatant command for robotic, autonomous, or unmanned systems (the SASC Section 917 RASCOM concept or a renamed equivalent). Report language, studies, or reporting requirements do not count. Resolves when the NDAA is enacted; void if no FY2027 NDAA is enacted by March 31, 2027.
Probability
30%
Band 25–35%
Opened at 30% · No change yet
Confidence
Low
Resolves
When the NDAA is enacted (by March 31, 2027)
OPEN
18
Programs
DHA will announce at least one follow-on award for work transitioning off the Leidos MHS GENESIS bridge by March 31, 2027
First published on this scoreboard, October 17, 2026
How it resolves
Yes if a war.gov contract announcement, DHA release, or SAM.gov award notice by March 31, 2027 shows an award to a company other than Leidos for MHS GENESIS sustainment or related EHR work described as transitioning from the Leidos contract.
Probability
40%
Band 35–45%
Opened at 40% · No change yet
Confidence
Low
Resolves
March 31, 2027
OPEN
20
Funding
The Department will seek autonomy funding through a vehicle other than reconciliation by March 31, 2027
Made October 15, 2026 in the October Pro report, as call 26-13. Related to #10, which asks whether a reconciliation bill passes.
How it resolves
Yes on the first of three triggers by March 31, 2027. A published budget document shows a DAWG or successor base-budget line above $1.0 billion in the FY2028 request, an enacted supplemental carries an autonomy line, or a reprogramming action moves money into unmanned systems lines.
Probability
55–80%
Graded at 67.5%
Opened at 55–80% · No change yet
Confidence
Moderate
Resolves
March 31, 2027
OPEN
21
Programs
Current major defense acquisition programs will stay outside the DRPM-UxS portfolio through March 31, 2027
Made October 15, 2026 in the October Pro report, as call 26-11.
How it resolves
Yes unless an official document places a current major defense acquisition program under DRPM-UxS milestone decision authority by March 31, 2027. Coordination or oversight language does not count.
Probability
55–80%
Graded at 67.5%
Opened at 55–80% · No change yet
Confidence
Moderate
Resolves
March 31, 2027
OPEN
22
Programs
The Army's new command will be named as the Army component to the Autonomous Warfare Command by March 31, 2027
Made October 15, 2026 in the October Pro report, as call 26-12.
How it resolves
Yes on an official Army or Department statement identifying it as the service component by March 31, 2027. The relationship must be stated, not inferred from organizational charts.
Probability
55–80%
Graded at 67.5%
Opened at 55–80% · No change yet
Confidence
Moderate
Resolves
March 31, 2027
OPEN
24
Programs
Austal USA's A$175 million provision will not be materially reversed by March 31, 2027
Made August 28, 2026 in the August Pro report, as call 26-08.
How it resolves
Yes if no recovery is booked in Austal's audited FY2026 accounts or its 1H FY2027 disclosure by March 31, 2027. A revision of more than 10 percent counts as material. A settlement announced but not booked does not count.
Probability
75–85%
Graded at 80%
Opened at 75–85% · No change yet
Confidence
High
Resolves
March 31, 2027
OPEN
33
Funding
At least one Office of Strategic Capital conditional loan commitment announced in 2026 will reach financial close by March 31, 2027
Made October 29, 2026 in The Call
How it resolves
Yes if, by 11:59pm ET on March 31, 2027, a war.gov release or a borrower's SEC filing, ASX announcement or press release states that definitive loan documents have been signed, or that the loan has closed or funded, for any OSC conditional commitment first announced in calendar 2026 (Phoenix Tailings, Energy Fuels, Performance Drone Works, Niron Magnetics, Sunrise Energy Metals, Sila, Wolfspeed, PsiQuantum, Antheia, or any commitment announced later in 2026). Commitments announced in 2025, amendments to a conditional commitment, and press reports without a DoW or borrower statement do not count. A closing that is never disclosed resolves No.
Probability
55%
Band 50–60%
Opened at 55% · No change yet
Confidence
Moderate
Resolves
March 31, 2027
OPEN
06
Programs
The Air Force will carry more than one design out of [CCA] Increment 2 concept refinement into prototyping
Made September 1, 2026 in Increment 2
How it resolves
A single-design prototyping award grades as a miss.
Clarified October 17, 2026. Void if no prototyping award is announced by September 30, 2027.
Probability
n/a
No number published
No change yet
Confidence
Not published
Resolves
At the prototyping award (void if none by September 30, 2027)
OPEN
01
Starting with call #11, every call carries a probability band, like 65–75%, and none sits at 50%. Our first ten calls (July to October 2026) carried a confidence level, and most had no number. They are shown exactly as published.
02
A call is a hit when the outcome lands on the side we picked. A 30% call that does not happen is a hit. A 70% call that does not happen is a miss.
03
Every call names a date. Starting with call #11, each also states what counts as yes before it publishes. Earlier calls without separate criteria are graded on the call as written. If the event cannot happen at all, the call is voided and left out of the record.
04
If new evidence moves a number, the change shows on the call with its date. The grade always uses the original number.
05
A call resolves on the public record: an official document, release or contract notice, or reporting on one. Each grade links its source, and any caveat we published with it.
06
Misses stay on this page. Once we reach 20 graded calls, we add a Brier score so you can judge our calibration.
Full rules are in our editorial standards.
We don’t forecast companies where we have a business relationship. See our disclosures.
Every change to this page, dated. Nothing is removed without a note here.
October 29, 2026
Added call #33, published in The Call on October 29: at least one Office of Strategic Capital conditional loan commitment announced in 2026 will reach financial close by March 31, 2027, at 55% with moderate confidence. 26 calls are open; the record is unchanged at 4–2.
October 21, 2026
Added #28, #30, #31 and #32. #29 held.
October 21, 2026
Added call #27, published in The Call on October 22: the FAR Council will publish at least one more Revolutionary FAR Overhaul proposed rule by December 31, 2026, at 60% with moderate confidence. 21 calls are open; the record is unchanged at 4–2.
October 17, 2026
Added eight calls first published in the Pro reports. #19 to #22 and #26 come from the October report (calls 26-09, 26-13, 26-11, 26-12 and 26-10), and #23 to #25 from the August report (26-06, 26-08 and 26-07). #23 is graded a hit, because the continuing resolution enacted September 2 carries no new-start or rate-increase anomaly. #25 is graded a miss, because a proposed rule implementing Executive Order 14402 reached the Federal Register on September 18. The October report printed 26-10 with two different numbers, and #26 uses the first one. Call 26-05 from the August report resolved on the same event as #05, so it is noted there and counted once. The record is now 4–2.
October 17, 2026
Scoreboard published with all ten calls made from July 7 to October 16, 2026, plus eight new calls (#11 to #18) published here for the first time. Record corrected to 3–1: the October 13 and 15 issues showed 2–1 after leaving out #05, the October 1 appropriations call. Grading terms clarified the same day for #02, #06, #08 and #10, with each note dated on its call. Pro forecast notes opened for all 18 calls.
Free · Tuesdays and Thursdays
New forecasts go out in Thursday's issue. The full scoreboard update comes the first Thursday of each month.
Insider · Pro
Insider and Pro members get why we set each number and what would move it.
SEE PROSpot an error in a grade? Email [email protected]. We note corrections on the call and in the update log.