Free defense and national security briefing · Tuesdays and Thursdays
Know what’s coming in defense before it’s news.
Tip of the Spear is defense and national security intelligence from Nerdrums. Twice a week you get where the money is going, from budgets and contract awards to government capital, along with supply chains, critical minerals and emerging tech. Every Thursday brings a dated forecast, graded on a public scoreboard, misses included.
Free. Two issues a week at 7:00am ET. We never share your email, and you can unsubscribe in one click. Read a sample issue
OCT 16 Hegseth put $50 billion on the drone initiative. We showed readers it has no bill behind it, only $1.0 billion that Congress has written down. See the October report
The forecast record
4–2 hits and misses on graded calls
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32 calls on the scoreboard, 26 still open. Each one names a date and how it will be graded. Misses stay up.
Written for
Executives and strategy leaders
Growth, BD and capture teams
Investors and market analysts
Policy and national security staff
Program and contracting offices
Latest issues
How the week works
Two free issues a week. Paid members add the Friday signals, and Pro adds the monthly report and the Hub.
Tuesday
FREE
The Brief
The week’s biggest development, then the deadlines in the next 14 days.
Thursday
FREE
The Call
One forecast with a number and a date, graded in public on the scoreboard.
Friday
INSIDER · PRO
Spear Signals
Five acquisition moves tagged Act, Watch or Ignore, each ending in what to do.
Monthly
PRO
The Pro report
One market taken apart, with dated actions by seat and forecasts that go on the scoreboard.
Graded in public
How it works
Each call names a date and what counts as yes. A 30% call that does not happen is a hit. Numbers are never reworded after they publish.
Latest results
MISS #25 No proposed FAR rule implementing EO 14402 this year. One published September 18.
HIT #23 The FY2027 continuing resolution carried no new-start or rate-increase anomaly.
HIT #05 No lapse in appropriations on October 1.
Next to resolve
NOV 10 #09 CMMC task force report and #28 China rare earth pause
NOV 13 #12 Feinberg deliverables and #13 the Agincourt plan
NOV 26 #02 The NDAA conference slips past Thanksgiving
Pro report · October 2026
The drone office, the money, and the command that eats it
The Department asked for $54.6 billion for autonomous warfare. Congress has written down $1.0 billion. The other $53.6 billion rides on a reconciliation bill that does not exist as text.
The bottom line
Treat the $53.6 billion as zero in your planning.
39 pages · 47 graded sources · 5 forecasts on the scoreboard · Dated actions before December 11
Want more than the free issues?
Insider adds Spear Signals every Friday for $19 a month. Pro adds the monthly report and the Intelligence Hub.
Questions
How often will I hear from you?
Twice a week, Tuesdays and Thursdays at 7:00am ET. Paid members also get Spear Signals on Fridays.
Is it really free?
Yes. The Tuesday and Thursday issues are free, along with every forecast and its grade. Paid plans add the Friday signals and the monthly report.
Who writes it?
Justin Nerdrum, a defense market analyst and Marine Corps veteran. Sources are linked in every issue.
Can I forward it to my team?
Please do. The free issues are meant to be shared. Paid content is licensed to your organization.
Who reads it?
Executives, strategy and growth leaders, BD and capture teams, investors and analysts, and policy and national security staff. About 1,950 people read it, and 43% subscribe with a work, .mil or .gov address.
Who writes this
Justin Nerdrum
Founder of Nerdrums and a defense market analyst. Before that, ten years in the Marine Corps as an NCO and crew chief. Tip of the Spear is written for the people who make growth, strategy, investment and policy decisions in defense and national security.
Sponsors and clients have no input on editorial content or forecasts. Standards and Disclosures
Read the next issue Tuesday at 7:00am ET.
Two free issues a week, built around dates you can act on. Every forecast graded in public.