FOUNDING PRICE Join Pro before November 13 and keep $65 a month for as long as you stay subscribed. The price for new members rises to $79 that day. See plans
Paid plans
The forecasts, reports and trackers behind every issue.
Every Friday, five moves tagged Act, Watch or Ignore. Every month, one market sized and forecast, with the calls graded in public. Annual Pro costs less than $14 a week.
4–2
graded record, every call public, misses included
32
forecasts on the scoreboard, each with a date and graded in public
Pick a plan
Two plans for individuals, one for teams.
Insider is the weekly signals and the reasoning behind every forecast. Pro adds the monthly report, the Intelligence Hub and the full report library. Teams puts up to 10 people on Pro under one bill.
Already a member? Log in. Prices in US dollars. Cancel anytime from your account. Founding Pro price of $65 a month ends November 13, 2026.
What a paid month looks like
Free issues twice a week. Paid work on Fridays and once a month.
Every Tuesday
The Brief
The week in defense funding, policy and programs, with the money behind it.
Free
Every Thursday
The Call
One forecast with a number, a date and the criteria we will grade it on.
Free
Every Friday
Spear Signals
Five moves to act on, watch or ignore, each ending in the action.
Insider · Pro
First Thursday
Scoreboard update
Calls graded in public. Paid readers get the reasoning behind each one.
Free · notes paid
Second Friday
The Pro report
One market in depth, with forecasts, figures and every source linked. Next: November 13. Office hours follow on the third Friday, starting November 20.
Pro
Spear Signals · Insider and Pro
Five acquisition moves every Friday, each one ending in what to do.
Three recent items, headlines only. Members get the action line, the deadline and the source under each one.
ACT
Emerging Tech · $200M budgeted · due November 30
DIU has $200 million for counter-drone boats that already work
ACT
Cost accounting · in effect since October 1
The CAS Board raised the exemption threshold to $35 million
IGNORE
Programs · $8B ceiling, $800,000 obligated
Raytheon’s $8 billion terminal contract isn’t an opening
The monthly report · Pro
TIP OF THE SPEAR PRO · ISSUE 09 · OCTOBER 2026
Agincourt
The Drone Office, the Money, and the Command That Eats It
The bottom line for members: treat the $53.6 billion as zero in your planning.
Earlier reports: Attritable Mass (June) · Global Autonomous Defense Systems Market (April) · FY2026 RDT&E Budget Analysis (March)
Intelligence Hub · Pro
The trackers we build the newsletter from, open to you.
Seven views of one short list. These rows come from the By deadline tracker as of October 28.
By deadline · Hot list · Recent awards · Non-traditional wins · Pipeline board · By agency · Active roster
Opportunity
Agency
Type
Due
Status
NSWC Carderock Advanced Signatures Technologies support (SeaPort-NxG)
Navy
Final RFP
Nov 2
WATCHING
SOCOM integrated platform-as-a-service contracting vehicle RFI
SOCOM
RFI
Nov 5
HOT
NSWC Dahlgren cyber support services
Navy
RFI
Nov 16
WATCHING
SDA Tracking Layer Tranche 4 tracking payloads RFI
SDA
RFI
Dec 4
HOT
SDA PWSA Systems, Technologies and Emerging Capabilities BAA
SDA
Open BAA
Mar 3, 2027
LONG LEAD
The record
We write our calls down and grade them in public.
Called August 27
HIT
No lapse in appropriations on October 1
Congress passed a stopgap through December 11 and the President signed it on September 2.
Called August 13
HIT
OFPP misses the August 28 date for its FAR amendment proposal
No proposed rule by August 28. The Part 16 rule reached the Federal Register on September 18.
Called July 7
MISS
A DRPM-UxS director named by August 15
The pick came seven weeks late. The miss stays on the board, with what we learned from it.
What a year of Pro is worth
Bought one piece at a time, the same access costs $1,315. Annual Pro is $700.
Readers buy our reports on their own at $225 each. Pro includes all of them, plus everything in Insider, plus the trackers and office hours we do not sell separately.
Every report in the library
Five reports on sale, at the prices we sell them for one at a time
$1,125
Spear Signals, every Friday for a year
With the forecast notes and archive, the Insider plan
$190
Intelligence Hub trackers
By deadline, agency, award and pipeline
Included
Each new monthly report
In your inbox the day it publishes
Included
Office hours, third Friday
Live with Justin, starting November 20
Included
Bought separately
$1,315
Annual Pro
$700
Run the numbers
What a year of Pro costs next to one contract you chase.
One contract you chase
Pro, one person ($700)
Team 5, up to five seats ($2,950)
$250K
0.28%
1.2%
$1M
0.07%
0.3%
$5M
0.014%
0.06%
$25M
0.003%
0.012%
If one report or Friday signal changes a budget, a bid or a position this year, Pro has paid for itself.
Compare plans
Everything in each plan, side by side.
| What you get | Free | Insider | Pro | Teams |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Brief (Tuesday) and The Call (Thursday) | ● | ● | ● | ● |
| Public forecast scoreboard | ● | ● | ● | ● |
| Spear Signals (Friday) | – | ● | ● | ● |
| Forecast notes | – | ● | ● | ● |
| Spear Signals archive | – | ● | ● | ● |
| Monthly intelligence report | – | – | ● | ● |
| Report library | – | – | ● | ● |
| Intelligence Hub trackers | – | – | ● | ● |
| Monthly office hours | – | – | ● | ● |
| One bill for the whole team, seat management | – | – | – | ● |
| Price | $0 | $19/mo or $190/yr | $65/mo or $700/yr | Team 5: $2,950/yr Team 10: $5,500/yr Larger: custom quote |
Teams
Pro for your whole team, on one bill.
Each seat is a full Pro membership in that person's own inbox. Team 5 is $2,950 a year for up to five seats. Team 10 is $5,500 a year for up to ten seats. Larger teams get a custom quote.
Team 5
$2,950 a year
Up to five seats. $550 less than five individual annual Pro memberships.
Team 10
$5,500 a year
Up to ten seats. $1,500 less than ten individual annual Pro memberships.
More than 10 seats
Custom quote
Email us with your team size and we will send a price.
01
Pick Team 5 or Team 10 and email us. We send a card payment link or an invoice, and purchase orders work too.
02
Add each person by email. They get Pro in their own inbox the same day.
03
If the team outgrows its plan, email us and we will move you up.
04
Move a seat to a new hire when someone leaves the team.
Who writes it
Justin Nerdrum, ten years a Marine, now on the market side of defense acquisition.
Justin served as a Marine Corps NCO and crew chief, then built go-to-market strategy for defense and national security companies. He writes every issue and makes every forecast. Each claim is checked against its primary source before it sends.
Relationships that could bear on coverage are on the Standards and Disclosures page.
Not ready to pay yet?
Check our record on the scoreboard and see how the Hub works. Monthly plans cancel anytime from your account.
Questions
Before you pay
What is the difference between Insider and Pro?
Insider gets the Friday Spear Signals and the forecast notes. Pro adds the monthly report, the Intelligence Hub trackers, the report library and office hours. If you make budget, bid or investment decisions, take Pro.
How do I pay?
Individual plans are paid by card at checkout. For Team 5 or Team 10, email us with your team size and we send a card payment link or an invoice. Purchase orders work too.
I work for the government. Can I subscribe?
Yes. Many readers work in acquisition offices. If your agency has rules on paid subscriptions or gifts, check with your ethics office, and email us if you need an invoice in your agency's name.
Can I expense it?
Yes. Every charge comes with a receipt. Email us if your finance team needs a W-9 or a vendor form.
I joined Pro at $65 a month. Does my price change?
No. Members who join before November 13 keep $65 a month for as long as they stay subscribed.
Can I switch plans later?
Yes. Move from Insider to Pro, or from monthly to annual, at any time from your account.
Do I get past reports when I join?
Yes. Pro opens the full report library on day one.
Can I forward the paid issues?
Please keep them inside your organization. If several colleagues read them, Teams costs less per person than individual Pro memberships.
Can I buy one report without subscribing?
Yes. Single reports are sold one at a time, at $225 each. Pro includes all of them.
How do I cancel?
From your account page, at any time. You keep access until the end of the period you paid for.
Your next Friday could start with five signals already sorted.
Join Pro today and the next Spear Signals arrives Friday, with the October report and every past report waiting in the library.
For billing questions or a vendor form, email [email protected]. How we work and what we disclose is on the Standards and Disclosures page.