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Standards and disclosures
Readers make business, investment and policy decisions on what we publish. This page sets out the rules we hold ourselves to, who pays for the newsletter, and every relationship that could bear on our coverage.
Updated October 17, 2026 · Corrections: [email protected]
On this page
01 Who publishes this 02 Where our facts come from 03 How we check 04 How forecasts work 05 Corrections 06 Who pays for this 07 Conflicts and disclosures 08 How we use AI 09 Images and charts 10 Contact
01
Tip of the Spear is published by Nerdrums LLC, a Utah company, and written by Justin Nerdrum. Justin served ten years in the Marine Corps as an NCO and crew chief before working in defense go-to-market strategy.
The Brief publishes on Tuesdays and The Call on Thursdays, free. Insider and Pro members also get Spear Signals on Fridays and Forecast Notes, the reasoning behind every forecast. Pro adds the monthly Pro report, the Intelligence Hub, the report library and monthly office hours.
02
We start with the government document. Contract awards come from the Department of War's daily contract announcements. Solicitations come from SAM.gov notices and DSIP listings. Policy comes from the Federal Register, the FAR and DFARS, signed memos, class deviations, and the text of bills and committee reports.
Trade press and analysts give us context and leads. When a fact rests on their reporting, we name the outlet and link it. Every issue links its sources, and if a primary document sits behind a login we say so.
Budget words mean specific things, and we keep them apart.
Requested
What the department asked Congress for in its budget.
Authorized
What the NDAA allows the department to spend or buy.
Appropriated
What Congress actually funded in an appropriations act or continuing resolution.
Obligated
What the department has put on contract.
Ceiling
The most a contract can pay over its life. Every award we report gives the ceiling and the amount obligated at award, separately.
We treat quantities the same way. An aircraft the NDAA authorizes may never be funded, and a funded aircraft can take years to deliver, so we say which number we mean.
03
Before an issue sends, every claim in it is checked against its primary source and given a verdict. Dollar figures, dates, program milestones and names get the closest look, because those are the errors that cost readers money.
Analysis is labeled as ours. When we offer a judgment, the sentence says it is a judgment, and the facts it rests on are linked next to it.
04
Every forecast names a date and states what counts as yes before it publishes. Starting with call #11, each one carries a probability band, such as 65–75%, and none sits at 50%. We rate our confidence as Low, Moderate, Moderate-High or High.
Every call is graded in public on the scoreboard, against the criteria we published. Misses stay on the page. If new evidence moves a number, the change is dated on the call, and the grade still uses the original number. The full scoring rules are on the scoreboard.
We do not forecast on Draganfly or its direct competitors. Section 07 explains why.
05
When we get something wrong, we fix it and say so. A correction runs in the Last Word of the next issue, stating what we got wrong and what is right. The web version of the original issue gets a dated correction note.
Changes to the scoreboard, including corrections to the record, are dated in its update log. Nothing is removed without a note.
Spot an error? Email [email protected] or reply to any issue. Tell us the issue, the claim and the source, and we will answer within two business days.
06
Pro subscriptions and newsletter sponsorships pay for Tip of the Spear. Each issue carries at most one sponsor, and the placement is labeled as sponsored. We write sponsored copy in our own voice from facts the sponsor supplies.
Sponsors have no input on what we cover, what we forecast or how we grade. Drone and autonomy companies may sponsor the newsletter. Their sponsorship does not change how we report on them or their competitors.
07
Draganfly. Justin Nerdrum is Director of Global Strategy at Draganfly Inc. (NASDAQ: DPRO), a drone manufacturer. He holds no Draganfly shares or options. Tip of the Spear does not cover Draganfly, and we do not make forecasts about its direct competitors. Our coverage of the wider drone market sticks to the public record.
Nerdrums Intelligence. Nerdrums LLC also runs Nerdrums Intelligence, which advises defense and national security companies on go-to-market strategy. Advisory clients have no input on coverage. We name a client in the newsletter only when the facts of a story require it, and we disclose the relationship in the same sentence.
Investments. Justin holds no positions in Draganfly or any other defense company.
If a relationship changes, this page changes first, and the date at the top moves with it.
08
We use AI tools for research. They help search and summarize government documents, and they check drafts against the sources we cite.
Justin writes every issue and makes every forecast. Each fact is verified against its primary source by a person before it publishes. We do not publish AI-generated images.
09
Photos are official U.S. government photography, mostly from DVIDS, credited to the service and the photographer. Charts are our own, built from the data they cite.
10
Reply to any Tip of the Spear email, or write to [email protected]. Sponsorship questions go to the same address.
Page history · October 17, 2026 · Published