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Tip of the Spear DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE
FREE FROM TIP OF THE SPEAR
Where the U.S. defense supply chain still depends on China, what Washington has spent since January 2025 to change that, and the dates that decide what happens next.
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Inside the map
The materials
16 materials, from rare earth magnets to gallium and tungsten, each with China's share, U.S. import reliance and the next dated trigger
The money
Every federal deal since January 2025: DPA Title III, Office of Strategic Capital loans, equity stakes, price floors and the stockpile, with terms and sources
The dates
The deadlines through 2027, starting with the January 1 ban on Chinese-origin magnets, tungsten and tantalum in defense contracts, plus three dated forecasts
Who built it
I spent ten years in the Marine Corps. Today I work as an analyst for defense and national security companies. I write Tip of the Spear, where every Thursday forecast gets a date and a public grade.
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