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KEY TERRAIN NO. 1 · PRESALE NOW OPEN · SHIPS NOVEMBER 20, 2026
On January 1, the Department of War stops accepting magnets, tungsten and tantalum that touched China, Russia, Iran or North Korea at any step from the mine to the finished part. Key Terrain No. 1 maps 17 defense-critical minerals stage by stage and names the allied suppliers who can pass the new test.
Presale · Report ships Friday, November 20, 2026 at 7:00am ET · About 150 pages plus Excel data · Presale price through December 4
Jan 1, 2027
DoW's sourcing ban on Chinese magnets, tungsten and tantalum widens
56%
of contractors report low visibility into raw materials (NDIA, 2026)
188x
ex-China yttrium oxide price over China's, Q2 2026 (Benchmark)
$19.95B
in federal critical minerals deals since January 2025
THE CALENDAR
CHINA
NOV 10
Suspension of the October 2025 rare earth controls lapses unless extended
KEY TERRAIN
NOV 20
Report delivered at 7:00am ET, with a live Q&A at noon
CHINA
NOV 27
Pause on the gallium, germanium and antimony export ban to the U.S. ends
CONGRESS
DEC 11
FY2027 continuing resolution expires
DOW
JAN 1
Expanded DFARS sourcing ban takes effect; routine waivers end
DOW
JAN 16
EO 14415 supply chain mapping guidance due
WHY IT CAN'T WAIT
A sourcing rule that sat quietly in DFARS for years gets much wider on January 1. Waivers used to be the way around it. EO 14415 closes most of that door, and anyone who still gets a waiver has to file a mitigation plan. By January 16, DoW owes contractors guidance on mapping their supply chains all the way back to where the ore came out of the ground.
Beijing holds the other end of the rope. Two of its pauses on export controls expire this month. Outside China, prices have already broken loose, and the U.S. produced no titanium sponge and no primary magnesium last year.
THE QUESTION
If you build, buy, finance or contract for anything with a magnet, a radar chip or a tungsten penetrator inside, you need to know which of these materials can still reach you and what they're going to cost.
Key Terrain No. 1 answers it, material by material.
A LOOK INSIDE
Nine of the 16 materials in our chokepoint tracker are rated Tight. The report adds molybdenum, now covered by the defense sourcing statute, plus a watch list of 12 more.
TIGHT
Gallium
China 99% of primary output
U.S. imports 100%
TIGHT
Dysprosium and terbium
China licenses every export
U.S. imports 100%
TIGHT
Yttrium
No U.S. separation
U.S. imports 100%
TIGHT
Samarium
Refined almost only in China
SmCo magnet rule Jan 1
TIGHT
Germanium
U.S. imports down 67% in 2025
U.S. imports over 50%
TIGHT
Antimony
No major U.S. mine until 2028
U.S. imports 91%
TIGHT
Tungsten
China 79% of mining
DFARS ban Jan 1
TIGHT
Titanium sponge
Zero U.S. production
U.S. imports 100%
TIGHT
Magnesium
China 86% of smelting
U.S. imports over 75%
WATCH
NdPr magnets
China 84% of refining
U.S. imports 67%
WATCH
Graphite
China 94% of processing
U.S. imports 100%
WATCH
Cobalt
China 76% of refining
U.S. imports 79%
WATCH
Lithium
China 74% of refining
U.S. imports over 50%
WATCH
Indium
China 69% of refining
U.S. imports 100%
WATCH
Tantalum
DRC and Rwanda 68% of mining
DFARS ban Jan 1
EASING
Beryllium
U.S. is the top producer
Net exporter
Status board from the Tip of the Spear chokepoint tracker, November 2, 2026. Shares from USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 and the IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026.
WHO NEEDS THIS BEFORE JANUARY
Primes and their suppliers
You'll be certifying deliveries against the new rules in a few weeks. The report shows where a compliant source exists for each material today and what evidence a contracting officer will ask you for.
Mineral, magnet and processing companies
The government now lends to companies in your market and owns pieces of some of them. If you're going after that money, you need to know how the stockpile buys and how offtakes and price floors get written.
Investors
Government price floors and equity stakes are changing the economics of every project in this space. The report sets China and ex-China prices side by side and shows which projects only work with a premium.
Corporate development and strategy
Deciding whether to move into the supply chain, or which supplier to buy, takes capacity timelines and a market size you can defend in a board meeting. Both are here, with ranges.
Program offices and contracting officers
Sources-sought work gets harder when the list of eligible sources shrinks on January 1. The allied supplier tables and company profiles give you a place to start.
Small suppliers
Primes will push the January 1 requirements down their supply chains. A supplier who can document its sources will keep the work.
WHAT'S INSIDE
■ The bottom line and key judgments up front, each with a likelihood, a confidence level and the evidence behind it
■ China and ex-China prices, with the price floors and offtake terms behind the new supply
■ How the government buys, from the National Defense Stockpile to Project Vault
■ The market sized from the bottom up to 2030 and 2035, with base, high and low cases and supply and demand outside China in tonnes
■ Named stress tests, including a full China embargo and a DRC cobalt quota cut
■ Allied supply paths from mine to finished component for all 17 materials
■ A compliance toolkit for the January 1 DFARS rules and EO 14415, with an evidence checklist
■ Every federal critical minerals deal since January 2025 in one table
■ 14 full company profiles and 8 short ones
■ About five dated forecast calls that go on the public scoreboard
■ An Excel file with the data behind every table and chart (team and organization licenses)
TABLE OF CONTENTS · ABOUT 150 PAGES
The assessment
12 PP
1 Front matter · 2 Scope note · 3 Bottom line and key judgments · 4 How to read this report
I. The threat environment
9 PP
5 Geopolitics, trade controls and stress tests
II. The money
35 PP
6 Federal money · 7 Government as buyer and market maker · 8 Prices, price floors and offtake structures · 9 Market size and forecast to 2030 and 2035 · 10 Defense demand
III. The supply chain
23 PP
11 Mine to magnet: chokepoints and allied supply paths · 12 Regional and country analysis · 13 Market dynamics and inputs
IV. The rules
9 PP
14 Regulation, compliance and traceability toolkit
V. The players
31 PP
15 Contracts and opportunities · 16 Competitive landscape and investor view · 17 Company profiles
VI. Outlook
9 PP
18 Recommendations by reader · 19 Forecast calls and indicators
Annexes
24 PP
20 Methodology · 21 Reference entries for 17 materials and a watch list of 12 · 22 Deals table, glossary, endnotes and errata
HOW IT'S BUILT
Bottom line first
Written like an intelligence assessment. Key judgments come first, each with a likelihood and a confidence level.
Every source graded
Budget books, contract awards, Federal Register notices, MOFCOM announcements and USGS data, each endnoted and graded. Open questions sit in a gap register.
Outside review
A reviewer who spent his career as an intelligence community analyst, and now works in defense, reads the full draft before release.
Graded in public
The report ends with dated calls scored on the Tip of the Spear scoreboard. Corrections are free to buyers for 12 months.
5-2
Scoreboard record on graded forecast calls, November 2026. Every call and its grade is public at tots.nerdrums.com/scoreboard.
ABOUT THE ANALYST
I spent ten years in the Marine Corps. Today I work as an analyst for defense and national security companies. I also publish Tip of the Spear, a free defense and national security newsletter read by contractors and the government offices they sell to.
JUSTIN NERDRUM · EDITOR, TIP OF THE SPEAR
EDITORIAL INDEPENDENCE
Companies named in this report may buy it. None paid to be included, and buying a license never changes what the report says. Nerdrums LLC, publisher of Tip of the Spear, provides advisory services to defense companies. See our disclosures at tots.nerdrums.com/standards.
PRICING
This is a presale. You pay the presale price today, and the full report is delivered by email on Friday, November 20, 2026 at 7:00am ET. Nothing ships before then. If you change your mind before delivery, you get a full refund.
BEST FOR MOST TEAMS
TEAM OF UP TO 5
$2,395
$2,995 from December 5
Up to five named people at one company. PDF, the Excel data file and one Q&A call with Justin.
Pre-order team licenseORGANIZATION
$3,595
$4,495 from December 5
Everyone at one company. PDF, Excel data, a 60-minute briefing for your team, and invoice or purchase order.
Pre-order organization licensePro members
40% off full price with the member code in the Pro Hub, about $1,197 single, $1,797 team or $2,697 organization. Use it in place of the presale price.
Year-end budgets
Teams and organizations paying by invoice or PO keep the presale price through December 19, payment due in January.
Guarantee
Ships November 20 at 7:00am ET. Full refund any time before delivery, or within 14 days after it if the report doesn't earn its price. Email [email protected].
Need an invoice or purchase order? Email [email protected] with the license you want. Government offices pay the public price shown here.
QUESTIONS
What does presale mean?
You order now at the presale price, and the report is delivered by email on Friday, November 20, 2026 at 7:00am ET. You get a confirmation right away, and nothing else arrives until launch day.
Is this the monthly Pro report?
No. Pro members still get the monthly report with their membership. This is a separate quarterly report sold on its own, and Pro members pay 40% less for it.
What format is it?
A PDF of about 150 pages. Team and organization licenses add an Excel file with the data behind every table and chart.
Can I share it?
A single-reader license covers one named person. A team license covers up to five named people at one company. An organization license lets you share it with anyone inside your company.
When does the presale price end?
For single readers, at the end of the day on Friday, December 4, Eastern time. Team and organization licenses paid by invoice or purchase order keep it through December 19.
What if you get something wrong?
Corrections go on the errata page, and every buyer gets each corrected version free for 12 months.
When is the next one?
The second Key Terrain report publishes Friday, February 19, 2027.
PRESALE OPEN · SHIPS NOVEMBER 20
NOT READY YET?
Get the executive summary free on November 20, plus a reminder before the presale price ends on December 4.