This website uses cookies
Read our Privacy policy and Terms of use for more information.
Tip of the Spear DEFENSE INTELLIGENCE
Already subscribed? Log in
Free · Tuesdays and Thursdays at 7:00am ET
Two short issues a week for executives, investors, BD and policy teams on the budgets, programs, technology and supply chains that move defense money. Every forecast we make goes on a public scoreboard, misses included.
We never share your email, and you can unsubscribe in one click. Read a sample issue
What lands in your inbox
Tuesday
The week’s biggest development, then the deadlines coming in the next 14 days.
Thursday
One forecast with a number and a date, graded in public on the scoreboard.
Written by Justin Nerdrum, a defense market analyst and Marine Corps veteran. Sources are linked in every issue.
1,900+
readers on the list today
43%
of readers subscribe with a work, .mil or .gov address
4–2
forecast record so far, every call graded on the public scoreboard
Recent free issues
Oct 15 · Policy
The Feinberg memo’s first deliverables passed with nothing published. The next two dates land October 29 and November 13.
Oct 13 · Policy
Why the Phase 2 date is slipping, and the call on the task force report that is now on the scoreboard.
Jul 23 · Supply Chain
An executive order tightened waivers on adversary-sourced magnets and minerals and gave the department 180 days to require supply chain maps from primes and subs at any tier.
Each Thursday call names a date and what counts as yes. Misses stay on the board.
HIT
NO. 05
No lapse in appropriations on October 1.
HIT
NO. 23
The FY2027 continuing resolution carried no new-start or rate-increase anomaly.
MISS
NO. 25
No proposed FAR rule implementing EO 14402 this year. One published September 18.
Join 1,900+ readers who see the dates before they land. Free, and one click to leave.
© 2026 Nerdrums LLC