This week, the Pentagon decided to keep the A-10 in service longer and to invest more in autonomous systems. Keeping the A-10 maintains current capabilities, while investing in autonomy prepares for the future.

If you track defense programs or plan for future cycles, focus on this shift.

On April 21, 2026, the Air Force announced it would delay the retirement of the A-10. Secretary Troy E. Meink shared in a short post that, after working with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, three A-10 squadrons will stay active until at least 2029 or 2030. This comes after the last A-10 pilot class graduated, and support infrastructure began to wind down.

Hegseth’s response was short but clear: “Long live the Warthog.”

The Pentagon made this choice to manage risk as it prepares for the bigger FY2027 budget cycle.

Why extend it now

Recent missions near the Strait of Hormuz and during Operation Epic Fury gave the A-10 a fresh combat test. The aircraft showed its usual strengths: it can stay in the air for a long time, deliver quick firepower, and survive well in tough, non-peer situations.

In these conditions, ground commanders prioritize rapid response. The A-10 continues to outperform most platforms in this regard.

The Air Force is still focused on modernization, but it is using the A-10 to maintain its capabilities during this transition.

What it means for the industry

There will still be a need to support the A-10. Keeping three squadrons running into the next decade means steady work for depots, parts suppliers, and upgrade teams. This work will be steady, not groundbreaking.

The Pentagon is easing pressure on the industrial base by ramping up production of munitions, counter-drone systems, and new platforms. Keeping older systems like the A-10 helps fill gaps while these new capabilities are being built up. Risk is changing but still present. If your business relies on A-10 programs, your revenue should stay steady for now. Keep supporting these proven systems, but also speed up work on autonomous and networked technologies.

larger signal

The A-10 was built for an earlier time, but it still meets important needs today. Some missions need toughness and firepower more than speed or stealth.

For policymakers, this is a practical choice. Rebuilding the industrial base will take years, so having systems that bridge the gap is crucial.

Contractors should see older platforms as useful for timing, not just as outdated equipment. They give new programs time to develop and help avoid gaps in operations.s.

The Warthog is not a permanent fix, but keeping it around gives more time to make the transition.

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Extending the A-10 gives some extra time, but the main changes for FY2027 are happening elsewhere.

The Pentagon is integrating autonomous systems into core operations. The newly established Defense Autonomous Warfare Group (DAWG) exemplifies this shift. Funding has increased from $225 million last year to a projected $54.6 billion, indicating a structural, not experimental, change.

This is a turning point. Autonomy is now the main way to build up military strength, not just an extra feature.

We can already see signs of this change. The Air Force is moving forward with Collaborative Combat Aircraft, with nearly $1 billion set aside for early purchases. These aircraft will fly with piloted fighters, boosting range, sensors, and strike power while keeping pilots safer.

At sea, autonomous surface ships are moving from concept to actual production. Anduril and HD Hyundai plan to start water trials by late 2026. This shows the Navy is ready to test and use new systems as they develop, rather than wait for a finished program.

In aviation, Boeing’s supervised autonomous landing of a CH-47 demonstrates not only technical skill but also enables fewer crew members, more flights, and more flexible missions in tough conditions.

What this signals

The Pentagon now wants systems that can be built and deployed quickly and in large numbers. Platforms that were once special-purpose are becoming the norm for tough missions. This change widens the gap: companies that stick to slow, expensive platforms face more risk, while those that move fast, use software, and build at scale will benefit as demand grows for affordable, scalable systems.

Both major contractors and newer companies will need to work more closely together. These partnerships are now key to staying competitive.

Forecast

Starting in 2028, autonomous systems will work together in groups for ISR, strike, and electronic warfare missions. Crewed platforms will shift to a more command-and-control role rather than leading the action.

The way DAWG is set up now points to a single authority for autonomous operations across all military branches. This should speed things up and make requirements more consistent.

Now, the focus is on who can produce systems fastest, not just who has the best technology.

Companies that focus on rapid, scalable growth will drive defense spending over the next 10 years.

Last Friday’s report explores these ongoing changes.

The Global Autonomous Defense Systems Market report shows where the money is going, how autonomy will grow, and which areas are set to benefit. We explain the shift from testing to large-scale use, highlight platform trends, budget changes, and the companies most likely to succeed as autonomy becomes central to military operations.

Use this analysis to keep track of contracts and capabilities with full context.

Access is available through two options:

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Autonomous maritime systems are now being produced. Anduril and HD Hyundai are building their first autonomous surface ship, with tests set for October 2026. The Navy is beginning to deploy these systems, creating immediate demand for sensors, autonomy software, and command-and-control integration at sea.

Autonomy for helicopters has hit a big milestone. Boeing’s autonomous landing of a CH-47 with A2X software shows that supervised autonomy is now ready for real missions. Right now, the best opportunities are in retrofit programs and upgrades that reduce crew requirements without replacing the entire aircraft.

The industrial base is growing faster now. The Pentagon is working with car makers and other commercial companies to help produce munitions and counter-drone systems. The main goal is to increase production capacity, not just solve technology problems. Contracts will likely go to companies that can move fast, use commercial skills, and deliver in large numbers.

There is an opportunity now, but it won’t last long. Older systems remain important as autonomous technology advances. Make sure you are ready for this overlap.

Plan for where the military will be when this opportunity ends, not just where it is right now.

Semper Fi,

-Justin